A Saliva-Based Serological and Behavioral Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Prevalence in Howard County, Maryland.

The objective of the study was to estimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence in the Howard County, Maryland, general population and demographic subpopulations attributable to natural infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and to identify self-reported social behaviors that may affect the likelihood of recent or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. A cross-sectional, saliva-based serological study of 2,880 residents of Howard County, Maryland, was carried out from July through September 2021. Natural SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was estimated by inferring infections among individuals according to anti-nucleocapsid immunoglobin G levels and calculating averages weighted by sample proportions of various demographics. Antibody levels between BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) recipients were compared. Antibody decay rate was calculated by fitting exponential decay curves to cross-sectional indirect immunoassay data. Regression analysis was carried out to identify demographic factors, social behaviors, and attitudes that may be linked to an increased likelihood of natural infection. The estimated overall prevalence of natural infection in Howard County, Maryland, was 11.9% (95% confidence interval, 9.2% to 15.1%), compared with 7% reported COVID-19 cases. Antibody prevalence indicating natural infection was highest among Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black participants and lowest among non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Asian participants. Participants from census tracts with lower average household income also had higher natural infection rates. After accounting for multiple comparisons and correlations between participants, none of the behavior or attitude factors had significant effects on natural infection. At the same time, recipients of the mRNA-1273 vaccine had higher antibody levels than those of BNT162b2 vaccine recipients. Older study participants had overall lower antibody levels compared with younger study participants. The true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is higher than the number of reported COVID-19 cases in Howard County, Maryland. A disproportionate impact of infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 positivity was observed across different ethnic/racial subpopulations and incomes, and differences in antibody levels across different demographics were identified. Taken together, this information may inform public health policy to protect vulnerable populations. IMPORTANCE We employed a highly innovative noninvasive multiplex oral fluid SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay to ascertain our seroprevalence estimates. This laboratory-developed test has been applied in NCI's SeroNet consortium, possesses high sensitivity and specificity according to FDA Emergency Use Authorization guidelines, correlates strongly with SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody responses, and is Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-approved by the Johns Hopkins Hospital Department of Pathology. It represents a broadly scalable public health tool to improve understanding of recent and past SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection without drawing any blood. To our knowledge, this is the first application of a high-performance salivary SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay to estimate population-level seroprevalence, including identifying COVID-19 disparities. We also are the first to report differences in SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses by COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] and mRNA-1273 [Moderna]). Our findings demonstrate remarkable consistency with those of blood-based SARS-CoV-2 IgG assays in terms of differences in the magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses between COVID-19 vaccines.

Palliative Care in a Pandemic: A Multicenter Cohort of Critically Ill Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Background: Trends in mortality, palliative care, and end-of-life care among critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain underreported. We hypothesized that use of palliative care and end-of-life care would increase over time, because improved understanding of the disease course and prognosis would potentially lead to more frequent use of these services. Patients and Methods: Adult patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection (SARS-CoV-2) during pandemic wave one (W1: March 2020 to September 2020) or wave two (W2: October 2020 to June 2021) admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in one of six northeastern U.S. hospitals were identified and clinical characteristics obtained. Vaccination data were unavailable. Outcomes of interest included mortality, palliative care consultation, and any end-of-life care (including hospice and comfort care). Results: There were 1,904 critically ill patients with COVID-19: 817 (42.9%) in W1 and 1,087 (57.1%) in W2. Patients received mechanical ventilation more often during W1 than W2 (52.9% vs. 46.3%; p = 0.004), with no difference in ICU or hospital length of stay between waves. Mortality between W1 and W2 was similar (31.2% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.888). There was no difference in use of palliative care or any end-of-life care between waves. Patients who died during W2 versus W1 were more likely to have received both mechanical ventilation (77.1% vs. 67.1%; p = 0.007) and palliative care services (52.1% vs. 41.2%; p = 0.009). However, logistic regression adjusted for demographics, baseline comorbid disease, and clinical characteristics showed no difference in mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-1.48), palliative care (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.84-1.40), or any end-of-life care (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.82-1.34) in W2 versus W1. Conclusions: Mortality among critically ill patients with COVID-19 has remained constant across two pandemic waves with no change in use of palliative or end-of-life care.

Popular to a Point: The Enduring Political Challenges of the Public Option.

Policy Points A decade after failing to make it into the Affordable Care Act, the public option reemerged as a health reform goal at both the national and state levels, with polls reporting strong, bipartisan support. A 2020 poll that probed both support for one public option approach (Medicare "buy-in") and attitudes toward government suggests that differences in these attitudes could plague reform advocates' efforts. Although the COVID-19 pandemic viscerally highlighted the need for a more coherent health care system-including universal coverage-other recent evolutions in the broader US political context could undermine reform.

Return on Investment of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in New York City.

Importance: New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, invested heavily in its COVID-19 vaccination campaign to mitigate the burden of disease outbreaks. Understanding the return on investment (ROI) of this campaign would provide insights into vaccination programs to curb future COVID-19 outbreaks. Objective: To estimate the ROI of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign by estimating the tangible direct and indirect costs from a societal perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model of disease transmission was calibrated to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New York City between December 14, 2020, and January 31, 2022. This simulation model was validated with observed patterns of reported hospitalizations and deaths during the same period. Exposures: An agent-based counterfactual scenario without vaccination was simulated using the calibrated model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Costs of health care and deaths were estimated in the actual pandemic trajectory with vaccination and in the counterfactual scenario without vaccination. The savings achieved by vaccination, which were associated with fewer outpatient visits, emergency department visits, emergency medical services, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions, were also estimated. The value of a statistical life (VSL) lost due to COVID-19 death and the productivity loss from illness were accounted for in calculating the ROI. Results: During the study period, the vaccination campaign averted an estimated $27.96 (95% credible interval [CrI], $26.19-$29.84) billion in health care expenditures and 315 724 (95% CrI, 292 143-340 420) potential years of life lost, averting VSL loss of $26.27 (95% CrI, $24.39-$28.21) billion. The estimated net savings attributable to vaccination were $51.77 (95% CrI, $48.50-$55.85) billion. Every $1 invested in vaccination yielded estimated savings of $10.19 (95% CrI, $9.39-$10.87) in direct and indirect costs of health outcomes that would have been incurred without vaccination. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this modeling study showed an association of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign with reduction in severe outcomes and avoidance of substantial economic losses. This significant ROI supports continued investment in improving vaccine uptake during the ongoing pandemic.

The collaborative research and service delivery partnership between the United States healthcare system and the U.S. Military Health System during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the military-civilian collaborative efforts which addressed the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in areas including provision of supplies, patient and provider support, and development and dissemination of new vaccine and drug candidates. METHODS: We examined peer reviewed and grey literature from September 2020 to June 2021 to describe the relationship between the U.S. healthcare system and Military Health System (MHS). For analysis, we applied the World Health Organization framework for health systems, which consists of six building blocks. RESULTS: The strongest collaborative efforts occurred in areas of medicine and technology, human resources, and healthcare delivery, most notably in the MHS supplying providers, setting up treatment venues, and participating in development of vaccines and therapeutics. Highlighting that the MHS, with its centralized structure and ability to deploy assets rapidly, is an important contributor to the nation's ability to provide a coordinated, large-scale response to health emergencies. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing the relationship between the two health systems is vital to maintaining the nation's capability to meet future health challenges.

Innovation Centers in Health Care Delivery Systems: Structures for Success.

The need to support innovation in health care delivery was prompted by payment reforms and access to digital tools and has been accelerated by the shift to virtual care as part of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Prior to the pandemic, a growing number of health systems set up innovation centers to focus on creating new services and exploring new business models relevant to value-based care. This is distinct from process improvement or implementation science, and often needs a different set of incentives to succeed within a large organization. We used a national survey to identify a diverse sample of innovation centers, and interviewed leaders to describe their aims, organizational structures, and activities. They all aim to improve patient outcomes and experience while reducing costs, but their strategic focus may differ. The centers also vary in their reporting structure, how they build internal capacity, and how they measure success. We highlight the range of strategies through examples of projects that improve quality, reduce costs, and generate new revenue. While the optimal forms and impact of innovation centers are still emerging, the fiscal pressures and the rapid uptake of digital technologies present opportunities for the redesign of health services in the postpandemic era. The experiences of these centers illustrate a set of approaches to increase any organization's capacity for innovation.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths averted under an accelerated vaccination program in northeastern and southern regions of the USA.

BACKGROUND: The fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions. METHODS: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021. FINDINGS: A 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9). INTERPRETATION: Accelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections. FUNDING: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund. SMM acknowledges the support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [OV4 - 170643, COVID-19 Rapid Research] and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling, MfPH grant. MCF acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health (5 K01 AI141576).

Underserved population acceptance of combination influenza-COVID-19 booster vaccines.

Recent data indicates increasing hesitancy towards both COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. We studied attitudes towards COVID-19 booster, influenza, and combination influenza-COVID-19 booster vaccines in a nationally representative sample of US adults between May and June 2021 (n = 12,887). We used pre-qualification quotes to ensure adequate sample sizes for minority populations. Overall vaccine acceptance was 45% for a COVID-19 booster alone, 58% for an influenza vaccine alone, and 50% for a combination vaccine. Logistic regression showed lower acceptance among female, Black/African American, Native American/American Indian, and rural respondents. Higher acceptance was found among those with college and post-graduate degrees. Despite these differences, our results suggest that a combination vaccine may provide a convenient method of dual vaccination that may increase COVID-19 vaccination coverage.

Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. METHODS: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination. FINDINGS: We found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 - 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 - 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 - 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps. FUNDING: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.

Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19? Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries

From the Introduction: "With more than 4 million confirmed cases and 150,000 deaths as of August, the United States is failing to control the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. At a time when many nations are reopening their economies and societies, the U.S. is struggling in its attempts to do the same. To examine the early impact of the pandemic on the well-being of adults in the U.S. and abroad, the Commonwealth Fund joined the survey research firm SSRS to interview 8,259 adults age 18 and older between March and May 2020. It is the latest in the Commonwealth Fund's series of cross-national comparisons featuring the United States and nine other high-income countries that participate in the Fund's annual International Health Policy Survey."

Failing the Test — The Tragic Data Gap Undermining the U.S. Pandemic Response

Failing the Test Tragically, the United States, unable to match other countries’ pandemic response, has tallied the most Covid-19 cases and deaths in the world. Why has the U.S. response been so in...